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Showing posts from June, 2025

Inflation versus growth

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 30 years OK I lived in Japan for a year.  At the time I found it a very expensive place.  Roughly 3x as expensive as the UK.  My crude measure of the cost of living was a carrier bag of food shopping cost me £40 at the time whereas the UK was between £10 and £15 for a carrier bag of food. 30 years on,  I returned to Japan for a holiday. I was aware prices hadnt really changed much in 30 years but I was surprised how cheap it was compared to the UK - at least to eat out.  I would say prices were about 30% of London prices.  Sure housing is still expensive there - maybe 20% cheaper than London but certainly as a tourist it was cheap.  Pretty easy to get lunch in a restaurant/bar with a beer for about £6.  The most expensive meal in a moderately high end restaurant for 2 people, with drinks, was £75.  A cheap lunch in the UK for 2 people without alcohol can getting close to £35 nowadays. So I'm aware that Japan has had pretty much zero inf...

Has Britain's Social Contract become Anti-Social ?

For nearly 100 years Britain had it's own American dream.  If you worked hard and did the right thing, Britain would be a country where you would be rewarded with success. Success being a good job, a decent home and the chance to raise a family. In a nutshell - "a secure future". Yet today the social contract is broken. For the young, there's little prospect of owning your own home even if you have a good well paid job.  It's a real prospect that you will have to live with your parents until you are in your thirties or even older.  If you are fortunate then the bank of mum and dad may be able to help you get your foot on the property ladder. If you work hard you are taxed substantially whilst those on benefits often have a better standard of living than those who are working.  For many playing by the rules means "surviving" not "living". This unfairness breeds resentment. Raising a family for those who plan ahead and think about the economics o...

U-Turn Rachel's spending review

Going into the spending review Rachel has been talking up the economy after realising that she had been talking it down for so long that people were starting to believe things were that bad. On Thursday  5th June she said: "The most recent GDP (gross domestic product) numbers, 0.7% growth in the first quarter, the strongest in the G7, and recent business surveys ... are very positive," ... "That is good news and does show we are beginning to turn the corner." As a result she felt she could U-turn on the politically unpopular winter fuel payments. Her comments relate to the first quarter ie Jan - March.  It therefore ignores the introduction of increased employer national insurance contributions and the inflation busting increase to the minimim wage in April. The Government borrowed more in April than expected.  She borrowed £20.2 Billion  (2x Rachel sized black holes) which was £1Billion more than March. April tax receipts were up because of the  National Insura...