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Fiscal black holes are sucking cash out of the economy

 Now Rachel has left, there's a lot less talk about Black Holes from Denis Healey. Rachel liked to refer to budgeting gaps as Black Holes in order to point the finger at the Tories. But the real problem if the huge £3 TRILLION government debt pile has now actually become a black hole.  It has grown so large that the gravitational pull from the collapsing debt pile is now dragging cash out of the economy into the black hole. It's a runaway reaction where cash cannot escape. On the 20th July 2026 Burnham became Prime Minister.  As of today 30 year gilts are trading at the highest yield since 1998. The key difference is that the debt-to-GDP ratio in 1998 was just 42% compared to 94% of GDP now. Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities are now a staggering £2.6 TRILLION on top of the £3 TRILLION debt pile. That's for the generous final salary public sector pensions. Of the Black Hole sized £3 TRILLION debt, roughly 1/3rd is 10 year gilts and 2/3rds are 30 year gilts. So since ...
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Private sector employees are funding the benefits and public sector pay rise bonanza

I was horrified to see this headline  UK disposable income rises as benefits payouts soar ahead of wages It adds to my concern that tax payers  are being taken for a ride.  It's also a concern that the government sees this as good news..... So let's dig into the numbers Real household disposable income per head rose by 1% during Q2 2026. Social benefits increased by £5.3Bn Wages and salaries increased by £2.8Bn That in itself is a concern that benefits increased way more than salaries (and therefore taxation). Government borrowing has to increased to balance the equation. It's also a concern that if you break down the wages and salaries increase, it's public sector workers (ie tax payer funded) who are getting inflation busting awards. The ONS reports that in April–June 2026: Public-sector regular pay growth: 6.1% Private-sector regular pay growth: 2.8% Office for National Statistics Public-sector employment was about 6.21 million , or 18% of employment .  So if the...
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Does Britain really need to scrap the triple lock state pension?

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Showman Barnum made a big emotional tearful show of scrapping the triple lock on the state pension at this weeks show in Liverpool. Does Britain really need to scrap the safety net to ensure pensioners do not fall into poverty? A procession of inept politicians have never fixed the state pension and it is paid out of the current account unlike more robust schemes like Germany where pension contributions are ring-fenced to buy government bonds.   The UK scheme is a Ponzi scheme which relies upon young people paying contributions to pay today's pensioners from current National Insurance contributions. The total cost of the State Pension will be £154 billion  for the 2026/27 financial year. The OBR expects National Insurance contributions for the 2026/27 financial year to be £205 billion so that's the Government is making a profit of £51 Billion per year off the State Pension.  Now it could be sensible and "invest" the £51 Billion into "Pension Bonds" to ensure...
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Why is the UK state pension so bad?

 As it currently stands, someone paying National Insurance is hypothetically paying into their state pension. The current rates are: Employer contributions:    15% of salary Employee contributions:  8% of salary So that's 23% of salary Let's compare that to Germany  Employer contributions:     9.3% Employee contributions:     9.3% That's just 18.6% of salary not 23% of salary like the UK system. In Germany the total contributions are capped a gross salary of EU101,400 so no additional contributions can be made. So someone who has worked 45 years would receive EU 1,913 per month in Germany compared to the UK's £1,045 (EU 1,216).  So the UK payout is 57% less for 23.7% more contributions.  It suggests pensioners in the UK are getting ripped off by our government. One reason is,unlike Germany, National Insurance contributions are not being ring fenced for pension payments but are being spent on a whim by politicians - it's Ponzi scheme...
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When are we going to wake up to Labour's debt crisis?

 Wind the clock back barely 9 months ago and Rachel Reeves on the 4th November 2025 was making a speech about the cost of borrowing and how she was going to adjust the fiscal rules to bring it back under control. She correctly the stated the problem:  "We are spending £1 in every £10 of tax payers money on servicing our debt". Back then the gilt borrowing rates were hovering around 4.2%.  In barely 9 months Labour has been splashing the cash and the bond markets are growing more concerned about the UK's ability to service, let alone repay, the colossal £3 Trillion debt pile. Because of this gilt yields have crept up to 5.05%. Now increasing from 4.2% to 5.05% doesn't sound so bad does it? Well to update her statement "We are spending £1 in every £8 of tax payers money on servicing our debt" "We are spending £1.20 in every £10 of tax payers money on servicing our debt" It's 20% worse than 9 months ago. Come back Liz Truss - all is forgiven in yo...
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Generous Andy "gives" farmers £65M to help with the drought

Showman Barnum's latest PR stunt is to announce £65M help for drought struck farmers. Dig a little deeper into the headline and it's not really £65M.  £50M is for sustainable farming incentive (SFI) - ie helping nature - not drought contingency.  If you have watched the latest Clarkson's farm series  - Clarkson thought he could get SFI  grants for doing nature things eg damming rivers etc - the reality is there's lots of paperwork involved and is it really worth the effort?  The farmer can earn more working in McDonalds. The remaining £15M of Barnum's £65M  is for help to build farm reservoirs - probably useful if drought is to become the new norm - although last year lots of crops were lost to too much rain.... There are 209,000 farms in the UK.  If each farm gets an equal share of this £15M that's £71 for each farm...I suspect that's hardly going to make a difference to drought struck farms.  Wheat yields are down 14%. Oat yields are down 9%. In...
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Starmer to Burnham translation table

 As we are finally starting to hear from our not so new Prime Minister, we can start compiling a lookup table to translate between them Starmer               => Burnham Laser Like focus   => Relentless focus I get it   =>  I hear what you say As Burnham opens his mouth more I will populate this table....
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