Posts

How will the markets react if Burham becomes Prime Minister?

 It's beginning to look like Burham will be crowned as Prime Minster with little opposition. We don't know much about him but it's looking like he will be far more left wing than Starmer. It looks like his policies will be  1/ Greater public ownership / control of utilities (especially water and energy) 2/ Large-scale public investment in infrastructure and housing He has backed spending £40 Billion on council housing. Is supportive on rent controls.  He wants to reduce bus fare caps back to £2 from £3. So let's look at these. Taking water into public ownership depends on the approach.   The lower end cost to the tax payer would be £60 Billion but is likely to result in legal battles.  A less confrontational  approach would cost in the region of £150 Billion.   Big sums to pay out for a capital intensive low margin business. It's hard to see what we would gain. At least with private ownership you can fine them for pollution breaches...

Starmer resignation speech

 Well Starmer has resigned and he's managed to keep the lies going. Here's the speech: Walking up this street two years ago was the proudest moment of my life. A new Labour government. The first in 14 years. A page in our country's history turned after years of disappointment and despair. Actually I'm pretty sure you've done a good job continuing the  disappointment and despair. The chance to change the lives of millions of people for the better. That's what I came into politics for. The journey to that point was not easy. So you're not actually saying you made people's live's better - simply that there was the change to do so and you decided not to do that. Six years ago, I inherited a Labour Party that was politically, financially and morally bankrupt. I was told, time and time again, that my party was finished. Finally some truth.  It was financially bankrupt until you tapped into the huge pot of money from Labour together.  The party is still mor...

House prices and rents are not high enough to build more....

 Labour entered government 2 years ago with the promise of building 1.5 Million net new houses during their 5 year term in office. Simple maths - but too challenging for Labour politicians, that's 300,000 per year. Year 1 = 208,600.  Year = 199,500 Now this is advanced maths - way beyond any Labour politician's capabilities - they now need to build 364,000 per year instead of 300,000 as they have failed to meet target in years 1 and 2. So why are Labour failing at this so badly? I begrudgingly have to admit the problem is not entirely Labour's fault.... For a basic standard of house, construction costs are now around £1,800 per square metre. That's roughly 50% on labour and 50% on materials. An affordable home is around 90 square metres so the construction costs are £162,000.  That assumes zero land costs and zero planning bureaucracy. Let's assume Labour planned to build 1.5 Million affordable homes.  They had the land already and planning costs were waived. So we ...

A procession of idiots....

Hot on the success at the Makerfield by-election, Idiot #2 looks set to replace Idiot #1. Idiot #1 had 4 years waiting to take power. He wanted to be the big cheese but despite having 4 years to plan, he didn't know what the job entailed,  he didn't examine the big picture of what needed fixing -  in fact  he didn't plan at all and when he got the big cheese job pretty much said - I'm a safe pair of hands and the adults are back in the room. He hadn't done any analysis of Britain's systemic problems.  He hadn't come up with any ideas or scenario planning to address the problems. His sole plan was to be the big cheese and not be the opposition.  He therefore coasted along not fixing the foundations and Britain in the meantime Britain has sunk deeper into the mire. So in comes Idiot #2. We don't yet know what his plans are but based on his track record, there is unlikely to be any substance to  his plans.  He seems a nice chap unlike morally sanctimoniou...

Why does Starmer want closer ties with Europe?

The reality is Europe has always benefited more from the UK than the UK has from the EU. The UK has always imported more goods from the EU than we have exported.   In 2018 the UK exported £303 Billion but imported £357 Billion. Compare that to today now we have left the EU we export £350 Billion but import a whopping £485 Billion.  Clearly leaving the EU has done little to stop the supply of goods from the EU into the UK. Exports to the EU since 2019 have pretty much kept pace with inflation so leaving has very little impact.  So why rejoin?  It would simply open the floodgates to yet more imports from the EU which is unlikely to benefit the UK economy. It's exports of our products which generate wealth for the UK - not imports. So why is Starmer so keen to create closer trade ties with the EU?  It won't increase our exports - they have in reality not been affected by Brexit.  If we didnt get massive gains from being in the EU when we were in it then w...

The numbers just dont add up .....

There's been lots of talk about defence budgets, ministers resigning over them etc in the last few weeks. The default answer is there needs to be cuts to the welfare bill - yes that would help but it's not enough. The numbers simply don't add up.  Most people, except Rachel and Kier, know that money out needs to be less than money in order to not get into debt. So here's money in for the UK: Income tax          £330 Billion National Ins.     £204 Billion VAT                         £183 Billion Corp Tax               £103 Billion Fuel Duty               £24 Billion CGT                         £13 Billion IHT                          £8 Billion TOTAL  ...

Why is the Spanish economy performing so well?

 Whilst the UK, France and Germany are suffering weak GDP growth rates, Spain is experiencing a bit of a growth boom. Why is that? Having just returned from a road trip around France and Spain, I think I have some of the answers. Fuel prices at the pumps in the UK are high but France is very high.  I was typically paying around EU2.2 per litre yet in Spain the rates were a surprising EU1.6 per litre  - significantly cheaper than the UK. Germany has a large chemical industry sector which relies heavily on gas as an input material and lots of energy.  Ever since Merkel decided to turn off Germany's nuclear power following the Japan Fukushima disaster, Germany has been exposed to very volatile energy prices.  It is heavily reliant on Russian gas. Therefore the Germany chemical industry is suffering.  Likewise there are reports that the UK's chemical industry could lose 250k jobs due to the very high cost of energy.  My daughter is qualified as a chemical ...