What's the economic outlook for 2026?
Today's ONS statistics were not good news. Unemployment has risen to 5% in March with the biggest job loss of 100,000 since 2020. On the "positive" news wage growth fell from 3.6% to 3.4%. The stats are for the period Jan-Mar this year. However the minimum wage 8.5% increase takes effect from April so expect this to trigger around a 0.3% increase in inflation. Hard pressed hospitality businesses have to absorb this high cost. My personal observation from Wetherspoons is they have solved the increase by having fewer staff. There used to be about 4 people behind the bar and it's now 2 or 3 people. There appears to be a correlation between increased minimum wage and rising unemployment. As the ONS reports quarterly this effect of the minimum wage will be baked in by July (one quarter later) and it's effect will not longer be reported since they report relative percentages rather than absolute increases. In July the Ofgem energy price cap is expected to rise fr...