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Showing posts from November, 2024

Growth

 Rachel keeps on going on about her budget was a budget for growth so I thought I would look objectively at what Governments can do to stimulate growth and see whether she is talking bollox or whether there are foundations for growth. So let's start with "What is growth".  She should mean economic output however I cynically suspect she actually means growing the size of the state. So what is the definition of Economic Output?      Economic output is the quantity and quality of goods or services produced in a given time period OK in order for the economy to grow the UK needs to sell more stuff or charge higher prices for the same  stuff. So if we have high inflation then prices will rise and in theory economic output will increase or if the pound becomes weaker we should in theory export more since our stuff will be cheaper. So what does the internet say about the conditions for stimulating economic growth?  It says you need the following things: Produc...

Reflecting on Labour's first term in office (a 2029 retrospective)

It's now 2029 and Labour's 5 year term in office is coming to an end. Who could have expected things to get so bad? OK the warning signs were there. Politicans around the world were losing control of spending. Government debt was rising faster than GDP.   Inflation was bubbling under the surface and volatile.  Like the First World War, it's only with hindsight we can see what sparked the economic turmoil. What was the Franz Ferdinand moment for Rachel? For the UK it started with Rachel's budget.  She committed to increase borrowing and change fiscal rules to ignore some unfunded debt. On the surface this looked lowish risk but like a butterfly flapping it's wings it triggered economic chaos. For decades successive UK government had less tax income than the government spending.  The feeble attempt in 2008 at austerity did little to quell the appetite for government spending.  By  2024 UK Government debt had reached a staggering £2.7 TRILLION - £37,900 f...