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Showing posts from July, 2023

EU Central Bank Raises Interest Rates

 Today on the 27th July 2023, the European Central bank, perhaps not unsurprisingly, decided to raise interest rates by 0.25%.  This takes it to 4.25% Comparing the bulletin with the Bank of England shows that the EU Central Banks does very little explaining for their decision.  In fact what data it has provided would be deemed positive in the fight against inflation: "Inflation continues to decline" "Our past rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully: financing conditions have tightened again and are increasingly dampening demand" "The near-term economic outlook for the euro area has deteriorated, owing largely to weaker domestic demand. High inflation and tighter financing conditions are dampening spending. This is weighing especially on manufacturing output, which is also being held down by weak external demand. Housing and business investment are showing signs of weakness as well." Yet it increased interest rates. ? Increasingly it's loo...

Dissecting June 23 Bank Of England Monetary Policy Committee Minutes

 The Bank Of England is hell bent on raising interest rates in a vague hope of controlling inflation. The UK doesn't grow enough food to feed the population so we import 46% of the food we consume. Countries like France and Germany, where a large percentage of our food originates from, have high inflation so the UK is importing inflation - if we don't import it we will either starve or the scarcity of food will cause even more rampant food inflation.  It's far from clear how higher interest rates in the UK will curb France and Germany's inflation. I personally have a deep concern we are about to enter a period of stagflation.  Stagflation is where there is high inflation, high or rising unemployment an low or negative growth (ie a recession). Why am I concerned?  April 2023 UK economic growth was 0.2% whilst growth in May 2023 fell to 0.1%.  We are getting very close to zero or negative growth.  If this is repeated for 2 quarters then we are in recession. M...

Inflation and interest rate increases

 The Bank of England is busy raising interest rates in order to tame inflation. Interest rates is pretty much the only lever they have but does it make sense to raise interest rates?  We are constantly being told we live in a global economy so therefore it’s pretty much impossible to control things at a small country level like the UK if we genuinely do live in a global economy.  I have developed an opinion that the Bank of England (BoE) is run by idiots and that they are busy harming the UK population and the economy by rapidly increasing interest rates. At best we will have a recession as a result of their actions although it's increasingly looking like we will have a period of the much worse stagflation.   The government kind of likes inflation.  Inflation silently steals wealth and makes their huge debts they have racked up disappear.  However it also means the costs of servicing the debt are increasing – they need more tax from the population just...